Which MLB favorite to start is here to stay ahead of Memorial Day? (2023)

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It's Memorial Day, the first real milestone of the MLB season. The first seven weeks won't determine who makes the playoffs, but it does give us a good barometer. But which (at least somewhat surprising) beginnings will survive?

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The Rangers have spent a lot of money on free agency this offseason, and it looks like it's working for them. They currently lead the AL West and have one of the best offenses in baseball. They are in the top three in average, OBP, slugging and OPS. Everyone in his rotation met or exceeded expectations, including Jakob deGrom, who lived up to the expectations he had before his injury. I think their lead in the league will be short lived as I've accepted the three certainties of death, tax, and the Astros being great anyway.

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They were an interesting story in April, but in May they proved that they are here to stay. Zach Gallen will be a Cy Young contender, while Merrill Kelly just came off a treacherous run against Team USA with an ERA below three. Lourdes Gurriel Jr. waited until he was traded from Toronto to have the best year of his career. Geraldo Perdomo, 23, could be the NL's starting shortstop in the All-Star Game. Corbin Carroll's $111 million contract looks like a bargain. All this shows that they are really good, young for the most part, and will continue to be for many years to come.

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Full disclosure: I'm an Orioles fan, so I'm very biased. This team is legit and probably better than yours. They just won five of their six games on trips to Toronto and the Bronx, with one overtime loss. One of the strikes against them is that they don't break the team. Their biggest margin is five, and they've only done it twice in 32 wins. But it's not a statistical anomaly like the Marlins' 12-0 start in a single game. At some point, you're that good.

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I've seen this movie before. The Angels are out of the wildcard picture, chasing the Astros and Yankees. A few weeks ago, they called Zach Neto and made him the first player in the 2022 draft to make the majors. While Neto improved a lot offensively over David Fletcher and is great defensively, I think part of the reason they took him to the big leagues is that they know what a big impact this season has and they feel like they're going for anything. team victory. As hot as they've been lately, I have more confidence in this team than I do.

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Putting them on the "Teams that started well" list is pretty generous considering they're just over .500, but they're #1, so I'll stick with that. They are No. 1 in the worst division and wouldn't be a playoff caliber team if they were in any other division, but that's the luck of the lottery. That's not to say there's nothing to like about this team. The entire pitching staff is great, with Sonny Gray back in his Oakland form and Joe Ryan a star. The offseason Pablo Lopez trade was one of the few where both sides felt good. Their problem is that they don't hit, even though Joey Gallo has hit 11 home runs against "the worst player in the sport's counts." Byron Buxton is now a full-time DH. You hate losing his defense, but if it keeps him healthy for the season, so be it. The Twins were also No. 1 early last year, but have since faltered. I don't think that's going to happen, just because their disagreement sucks.

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I mean... Jesus Christ. Juan Soto took advantage of a deal from Nacional to be able to join a team with essentially the same track record. I thought this team would easily win 100 games and dethrone the Dodgers as NL West champions, but that's not going to happen. I know selling low is not a smart investment, but I don't care. I'm going to get rid of all my Padres stock, if only because I can't watch it anymore. Their insistence on mediocrity is puzzling. They easily have the best finish in the top four on their list, but have the worst ranking average in the MLB. Manny Machado in IL will only compound the problem. His bullpen ERA is in the top five. Though Blake Snell and Joe Musgrove are having the worst seasons of their careers, their rotation is good. The problem with them is that they have more players batting under .200 per day than over .260 because they don't have a single player batting over .260.

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Last year I felt like they were out for a year and then they won the division and playoff series. His main disadvantage last year was the same as this year, only worse. They are absolutely incompetent offensively. They were last in runs, home runs, and OPS. For reference, the Rays have more than three times as many home runs (97) as the Guardians (30). Last season they went 3-1 against underdog teams with great starting rotation and small ball. That won't happen this year because to win you need to be able to score. Like, run it at least once. Their terrible split will keep them in hot pursuit long enough - they've only won 4.5 games now - but this is no playoff team.

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This team is largely a victim of its division. They are last in the AL East, but are 0.5 wins behind the leading AL Central twins. Now is the time when the rubber needs to hit the road for this young core. They've been a World Series favorite two years in a row, but so far the Blue Jays' iteration of Vlad Guerrero Jr., Bo Bichette and others has played in just two playoff games and been eliminated both times. One is during the shortened 2020 season, everyone and their mothers are invited to the playoffs. I think this team will be attentive at least throughout the season. They are near the top of the league in most offensive stats. They also set a record for most cheating and small talk accusations in a 2-9 game. Their rotation is pretty good, with Yusei Kikuchi and José Berrios back in pre-2022 form, even if the only thing more inflated than Alek Manoah is his ERA. The biggest problem with this team seems to be inconsistency. For example, they beat the Rays 20-1 the night before and still lost the four-game series.

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Queens, a struggling city for the first 40 games, have not fully recovered from that dismal start, but there are signs of life. Pete Alonso's home run against the Rays in overtime was the start of their five-game winning streak and put them back above . 500. It saved quite a bit of time before deadlift training. Justin Verlander and Kodai Senga have had mediocre acquisitions of pitchers so far. They've had nine different starting pitchers this season, and it's not like they're so deep that you just have to field them. The rotation needs to stop getting hurt (and suspended) before they can be real contenders. steal a fun movie exerciseMoneyball, let's calculate how much they cost per win. They are on course for 83 wins and a payroll of $345,913,716, which will cost you $4,167,635 per win. The Mets are playing the money ball, but in reverse. Despite their poor start, they are currently in the last wild card spot in the NL, so I think it's worth it.

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I don't know what to think of this team. The names on the list make me think they'll join at some point, but who's sure? They won the NL last year, but this year's team is not last year's team. To give them an early season win over Bryce Harper at Illinois, with Rhys Hoskins likely out all season, someone else in the lineup had to fill in, and that didn't happen. Kyle Schwarber was the NL's home run leader last year with a . 172 batting average and an OPS+ of 100. In Trea Turner's own words, he "sucked up" and was even booed by his own mother. He hit a home run on his next at-bat, so maybe he just needs a little more tough love. The biggest problem is that the starting rotation sucks. His ace Aaron Nola got off to a bad start, while Ranger Suarez has an ERA closer to 10 since leaving IL.